Ozymandias: an overview of a powerful trend indicator for technical analysis

Today, the acclaimed Ozymandias indicator is joining the battle for the title of “Best Trend Indicator”. The indicator looks very nice and at first glance creates a feeling of high forecasting ability.

The indicator was introduced to traders and very soon the MQL market was flooded with products based on it. Some sellers simply changed their name and built their business on aggressive advertising.

Our task is to reliably and fully unleash the potential of Ozymandias as a trend indicator. We cannot do without a limited version of the indicator, missing out on the possibility of a more reliable forecast. Therefore, the ability to separate sensitivity for ascending and descending trends will be added to the indicator. Numerous smoothing and normalization methods will be added to the moving averages.

Next, we will create an expert for testing and determine the place of Ozymandias in the rating table of the best trend indicators. As usual, all indicators and experts will be available for free download in the downloads section.

Content

What is 'Ozymandias'?

UniversalMA trend indicator of technical analysis

Ozymandias is a fairly modern technical indicator that helps traders identify potential trend reversal points, as well as places to buy more according to the trend. The tool analyzes extreme price movements and generates signals based on historical data.

It is especially effective on large timeframes from H1 and above. The indicator can show the base lines of support and resistance. High efficiency of the instrument is expected when trading during strong trends.

In simple words about the method of calculation and construction:

The indicator contains a maximum and a minimum for a certain period of time (hereinafter referred to as the range) and two moving averages (one based on the lows, the other on the highs). When the moving average built on the highs breaks through the top of the range, the trend is upward. When the moving average, built at the minimum, breaks through the bottom of the range, the trend is downward. Support and resistance lines - half of the 'AverageTrueRange' is added or subtracted from the main moving average.

Calculate the RBTI rating for the Ozymandias indicator

Let's test the classic ‘Ozymandias’ and assign it an RBTI v2.0 rating.

ozymandias the result of working as a trend indicator

know more about the calculation method RBTI

Let's select the parameters on the site for optimization and find the best parameters according to three criteria.:

An interesting fact is that all the maxima of the criteria converged on one set of parameters.:

Length_Up = 28;
Length_Dn = 58;
MAType = Linear weighted;
Shift = 8;
Open BUY Strategy = color change;
Open SELL Strategy = ghost cross MA.

Average_IMP_opti = 5.77

RF = 7.62

ISP = 2.05

Excellent results and a beautiful graph of the growing balance. RBTI 2.0 has been applied quite recently, and this is the first time we have encountered maximum criteria values on the same set of parameters. I'm looking forward to seeing how these parameters will cope with the forward test.

We perform a forward test with the obtained parameters

The forward test is completely failed. The patterns found in the optimization area are most likely just an over-adjustment without true patterns.

Average_IMP_opti = 5.77

PC = 25%

RBTI = 1,45

Let's improve the Ozymandias indicator

We will strengthen the predictive ability of the Ozymandias indicator through the introduction of new smoothing methods. The basic version of the indicator uses two moving averages (based on highs and based on lows). Let's expand the list of types of ‘Ozymandias’ smoothing using methods from the 'UniversalMA’ indicator. Since the market is never flat and has a different pattern of downward and upward movement, we will allow using different types of smoothing for directions. Let's give the resulting indicator the name ‘OzymandiasUMA'.

The introduction of new smoothing methods in the Ozymandias indicator demonstrates significant potential in improving the quality of forecasting market trends. The combined approach to data smoothing allows you to achieve an optimal balance between the sensitivity of the indicator and its resistance to market noise, which makes it a valuable tool in the arsenal of a modern trader.

Further development of the indicator may be in the direction of integrating additional analysis and machine learning methods to determine market trends even more accurately.

Let's calculate the RBTI rating for the OzymandiasUMA indicator

Let's test the improved ‘Ozymandias’ and assign it an RBTI rating.

ozymandiasuma the result of working as a trend indicator

Learn more about the calculation method RBTI

Let's select the parameters on the site for optimization and find the best parameters for the three versions.

IMP_opti_maxRF = 8,79. Exorbitantly much. Eh... if the same result had been preserved on the forward test, we would have used this indicator as a ready-made system and would have lived well. But if the simpler version of the indicator has been retrained, then most likely with such improvements, the retraining factor will only increase. In any case, the forward test will solve everything.

The parameters that showed the best balance and IMP_opti_maxBalance = 7.78

Length_Up = 37;
Length_Dn = 58;
MA_Method_Up = T3;
MA_Method_Dn = ParMA;
Phase_Up = 55;
Phase_Dn -35;
StepMA_Up = 2000;
StepMA_Dn = 7000;
Shift = 7;
Open BUY Strategy = color change;
Open SELL Strategy = ghost cross MA;

The parameters that showed the best ISP and IMP_opti_maxISP = 7.81

Length_Up = 37;
Length_Dn = 58;
MA_Method_Up = JJMA;
MA_Method_Dn = ParMA;
Phase_Up = 30;
Phase_Dn -25;
StepMA_Up = 2000;
StepMA_Dn = 7000;
Shift = 8;
Open BUY Strategy = color change;
Open SELL Strategy = ghost cross MA;

Parameters that showed the best RF and IMP_opti_maxRF = 8.79

Length_Up = 115;
Length_Dn = 173;
MA_Method_Up = AMA;
MA_Method_Dn =T3;
Phase_Up = 15;
Phase_Dn 5;
StepMA_Up = 9500;
StepMA_Dn = 2000;
Shift = 8;
Open BUY Strategy = color change;
Open SELL Strategy = ghost cross MA;

We conduct forward tests with the obtained parameters

The forward test actually failed. Moreover, the trending area is the worst.

Average_IMP_opti = 8.12

IMP_all_maxBalance = 2.31

IMP_all_maxISP = 2.87

IMP_all_maxRF = 2.42

PC = 31%

RBTI = 2,5

Conclusions

1) The Ozymandias indicator does an excellent job of adjusting to the story, but it shows a poor result on forward tests.

2) The improved ‘Ozymandias' shows outstanding results in all key indicators, but its mediocre results in forward tests clearly hint at overfitting. Probably, a large number of parameters of the new indicator led to a re-optimization effect. Most likely, to select parameters, you need to use longer and more diverse history intervals, use a shorter timeframe, or optimize for several symbols at once.

3) In comparison with the tests using the RBTI v1.0 method, the RBTI v2.0 method showed a much worse result. This is mainly due to the increased influence of forward tests on the final rating values. As a result, a powerful modern indicator lost even to the classic moving average with a result of 1.45 versus 2.08. But we must draw conclusions: a lot of parameters is not always good, and high—quality adjustment to the optimization area does not guarantee normal operation on new data.

4) The Ozymandias indicator has been assigned an RBTI rating of 1.45.

5) The OzymandiasUMA indicator has been assigned an RBTI rating of 2.5. The result will be recorded in the leaderboard.

What is 'Ozymandias'?

Calculate the RBTI rating for the Ozymandias indicator

Let's improve the Ozymandias indicator

Let's calculate the RBTI rating for the OzymandiasUMA indicator

The parameters that showed the best balance and IMP_opti_maxBalance = 7.78

The parameters that showed the best ISP and IMP_opti_maxISP = 7.81

Parameters that showed the best RF and IMP_opti_maxRF = 8.79

Conclusions

Ozymandias

OzymandiasUMA

RBTI_Ozymandias_EA

RBTI_OzymandiasUMA_EA

SET_RBTI_OzyUMA_EA

Ozymandias Review and Trend tests

What is 'Ozymandias'?

Calculate the RBTI rating for the Ozymandias indicator

Let's improve the Ozymandias indicator

Let's calculate the RBTI rating for the OzymandiasUMA indicator

The parameters that showed the best balance and IMP_opti_maxBalance = 7.78

The parameters that showed the best ISP and IMP_opti_maxISP = 7.81

Parameters that showed the best RF and IMP_opti_maxRF = 8.79

Conclusions

Ozymandias

OzymandiasUMA

RBTI_Ozymandias_EA

RBTI_OzymandiasUMA_EA

SET_RBTI_OzyUMA_EA